Probability and Statistics - Week 6: Lesson 1: Probability
Lesson Objective: Understand and use the probability scale, be able to list all of the possible outcomes of an event, and find the probability of equally likely outcomes.
Intro:
What Is probability?
Probability is the study of random events. The theory of probability is an important branch of mathematics with many practical applications in the physical, medical, biological and social sciences. An understanding of this theory is essential to appreciating weather reports, medical findings, political doings and the state lotteries.
Probability: the chance or possibility that something will happen or the measure of likeliness that something will occur.
Probability is usually expressed as a ratio of the number of likely outcomes compared with the total number of outcomes possible. Ask students if they can give an example of probability.
It can be shown by the...
successful outcomes
total number of possible outcomes which is a fraction. This fractions can be converted to decimals and percentages.
Lesson:
Probability Scale: You can use a probability scale to show the outcome of an event in words or values between 0 and 1.
A value of 0 means the event is impossible.
A value of 1 means the event is certain.
A value of ½ means the event has an even chance of occurring.
A value between 0 and ½ is considered unlikely.
A value between ½ and 1 is considered likely.
This website gives a great example and an interactive part: http://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/ks3/maths/handling_data/probability/revision/2/
Go over a few more examples with your students until they understand the concept of the probability scale.
Begin to explain how to find probability of a die as an example.
There are six possible different outcomes. It can show either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6
What are the total number of outcomes when we roll it once.
What is the probability of rolling a 1?
What is the probability of rolling a 2?
What is the probability of rolling a 3?
What is the probability of rolling a 4?
What is the probability of rolling a 5?
What is the probability of rolling a 7?
What is the probability of rolling a 2 or 3?
What is the probability of rolling a 1, 4 or 6?
What is the probability of rolling an even number?
Once the students understand the concept of the die, have them go over this worksheet:
Probability with numbers: http://www.math-aids.com/cgi/pdf_viewer_8.cgi?script_name=probability_numbers.pl&prob1=1&prob2=2&prob3=3&language=0&memo=&answer=1&x=144&y=17